Frost Log Stockwatch — September 7, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers post hours before tonight's live Stockwatch, so they're checkable against the room's in real time. They commit with the week's last lever pulled: at midday's veto ceremony Yash held his third veto, Angela, Dee and Devens stay on the block for Thursday's Block Buster, and the five voters who decide which icon becomes juror three all shook hands in a pact two nights ago. Scores are win equity — seat odds × jury odds — not weekly safety, and this is a week where a nominee moves up and an HOH moves down. (Last week's market numbers aren't on file, so there is no accounting section tonight.)

Angela — 4

Up one, and up while nominated — the divergence the scale exists for. In-house she's priced as the goat: Devens said it to her face Saturday ("must be really nice to just float thru the game"), the pact's Block Buster war-game treats her survival as the default, and P276 has her surviving any final block at 75%. Compute her final two backwards from the jury room instead: if she's the icon still standing, Dee and Devens sit in that jury carrying a Drew-and-Barrett program, Lala sits beside them, and the rookie across from her owns every icon eviction — that isn't a goat's jury, it's the case warns the house about. Her own ledger this week: volunteered as Dee's scapegoat ("make something up about me, I don't care"), pitched Yash a five-person structure with Dee, Melody and Taylor this morning, and told him her HOH board is Barrett and Drew. The debits are real — first nomination since week six, comps at base rate, and operator work still invisible to the rookies who'd have to carry her.

Barrett — 5

Down one on the anti-correlation the framework is built on: the week's biggest Game 1 move bought the week's biggest Game 2 bill. He won the HOH, nominated all three icons, held the pact together ("FAP or bust"), and adopted Melody's target within a day of her naming it. What it cost: Dee's on-record vow to make him "regret his decision for the rest of his life," a counter-plan that puts him on the board in every icon HOH branch, an icon jury program built around getting him cut before the finale, and a third juror who walks into the house Thursday having been nominated by him. His own account of the veto pick — "not the most strategic… be a little petty"¹ — is the signature: he commits to outcomes he falls into, and there's no scheme left to leak. Seat odds up; jury odds down harder; he can't play HOH10, and the Block Buster guarantees at least one icon stays to remember whose ceremony this was.

Dee — 4

Down three, the board's fall. Last week the best resume on the board; this week a nominee whose machine lost parts in order — her co-governor became the mesh's preferred eviction, her own campaign stalled ("two weeks of doubt," back to bed in the rain) until Angela volunteered to be lied about on her behalf, and Thursday's arithmetic puts her out roughly a third of the time. What's intact is the vengeance program — "purposely giving Barrett a bad week," "I will put you up next to Barrett with a smile on my face" — and what the program costs is exactly what she's short of: a rookie willing to keep her. The Bribe protects her from the one HOH that couldn't have nominated her anyway. Survive, and she's the most comp-capable icon left with a bounty from five players; leave, and she's the most articulate juror the season has produced — a good week for the jury-narrative model and a bad one for the person building the resume.

Devens — 3

Down one to the target's number. Barrett and Melody aligned on him within a day of each other, the pact's war-game leans his way if Angela wins the Block Buster, and he leaves roughly half the time from here. He posted the comp form to beat the math — 26 seconds short Saturday — while the signature that could save him is the one hurting him: social ease with his executioner (wine, cornhole, "genuine conversations"¹) while absent from his own bloc's campaign session and snapping at Dee to stop talking to him "like I'm an idiot." His veto speech ran long and told the room he's coming after them, "three times, by Melody's count" — honest, and precisely what a room deciding to evict him wants to hear. The jury story (DPOV, first renom to survive a Block Buster, warmth on the way through) is a finalist's story that needs a finalist's seat.

Drew — 3

Down one; the exposure the last two dailies charted has posted. He's safe this week and priced for next: Taylor and Yash want him gone (P280, 75% nominated if either wins), Angela and Dee have him beside Barrett (P281, 75%), and with Barrett ineligible only a Melody win or his own keeps him off a board. Then the edge he said was all he had: Melody called him "a wimp… so fucking pathetic" on the phone Monday, told him to his face she has never fully trusted him, and reconciled by early afternoon on "friends and allies" — not the final two he declared. Credit where the ledger requires it: he vetoed the oven-mitt bit and said nothing at the ceremony, the cleanest Game 2 minute any rookie had this week, and he paid for it in the one relationship he needs. Pass unspent, receipt vaulted, "Littlefinger" per Yash; the house reads a mastermind, the feeds show a 22-year-old asking Dee whether Angela could go¹.

Melody — 6

Up two, the board's rise. She lost nothing and set the target: Devens was her preferred eviction Saturday evening and Barrett's by Sunday afternoon¹ — the first observed Melody→Barrett target transfer, a second would book the rule. Doubly shielded (Barrett's bed; Drew's declared final two, unreturned in trusted coverage), named in no icon grievance all week, courted by Angela's "approach the girls" campaign, and still holding a covert Lala keep no one has traced. Zero owned evictions is the whole jury thesis, and the intent evidence demands — two-track scripts, a covert ballot, a transferred target — says restraint, not inability. The flags are new and specific: she proposed meowing over nominees who are the season's next jurors, wanted the oven-mitt bit Drew killed, and her "grow a backbone" rant reached Taylor and a phone — inside the pact, so far. Comps are base rate for her; the 6 is a carried seat, priced honestly.

Taylor — 4

Up one on agency, three days running: assigned the HOH job by a partner who can't nominate icons, named Drew as next, ran the ceremony-stunt planning, and became the player both sides pitch — Angela and Dee across the weekend and again today, the pact by membership. Sixth week off the block after five nominations, and the Rome sole-keep secret is still unspent. The debit is structural: she's the swing everyone courts because she's the one nobody fears, and Melody has already run the jury math against her out loud. "Drew hates me and I don't know why"¹ is a sharp read delivered, as usual, from the wrong end of the room.

Yash — 5

Holds, with the components rearranged. Third veto, held as everyone expected; immune this week; and the one rookie no icon plan names — Angela pitched him a partnership this morning, Devens hopes their handshake holds, and the pact treats him as its engine operating through Taylor ("taking the W in silence"). Seat odds up: comp wins paid the house-meeting debt at par, second observation. Jury odds flat to down: Haley is the juror whose exit he personally authored, the icons watched him lie about the Bribe's scope on Friday, and "sold out for $5,000" is the kind of sentence a sequestered room converges on. Against Barrett he's the cleaner-handed rookie; against Melody he's the one with fingerprints.

Biggest mover: Dee, 7 → 4 — the board's best resume went on the block, her machine lost its co-governor to the mesh's target list, and her campaign was outworked by the ally offering to be lied about for her.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.