Frost Log Stockwatch — August 31, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record hours before tonight's live Stockwatch airs — score them against the room's in real time. They post with the week's hinge freshly turned: at midday's veto ceremony Yash saved himself and Drew named Devens the replacement, so the board below prices a jury era three days old and a Thursday where the pawn's math and the house's private pledges point in opposite directions. Scores are win equity — seat odds × jury odds — not weekly safety, and this is a week where the two have never diverged harder.

Angela — 3

Holds. Carried through the tournament on Drew's plus-one, off the block, off the funnel — and openly named as his attachment by the opposition, which converts her safety into someone else's asset. Her window contribution was panicking about Barrett loudly enough that her own bloc told her to chill; the file remains position without authorship, and in the jury era that profile reprices as a safe seat for other people to sit next to.

Barrett — 6

Up one. Eight weeks never nominated, survived the Stone of Sacrifice by winning the round it forced on him, and now holds the decisive vote of the week with both sides sworn to his face — Devens confronting him directly ("You're why I'm trippin") and taking the reassurance, Taylor holding his evict-Devens promise as a receipt. Highest agency on the board; the debit is that his jury story requires the contradiction ledger never circulating, and Devens has already clocked one entry.

Dee — 7

Down one. She won Round 1 of the tournament and banked the Devens save, but the portfolio took three structural hits: her intelligence arm left for the jury house, her name entered the renom conversation in a 3 a.m. monologue she never heard¹, and her co-governor is on a trapdoor whose vote count her bloc hasn't independently verified. Her "we just pivot, no big deal" read on losing Devens is the coldest sentence of the week and pure signature — the resume is still the board's best, but the machine around it is losing parts.

Devens — 4

Down two, the board's fall. He volunteered onto the block against three private evict-Devens pledges plus a sympathetic fourth, and his survival math counts Barrett's word and a Drew tiebreak — the two most contradicted commitments in the house. The DPOV-and-governance narrative is still a winning jury story if he gets to the end, but the seat-odds factor just took on Block Buster variance and a phantom whip count; his "none of our votes" deterrent is real currency and also a threat jurors may remember being aimed at them.

Drew — 4

Holds on the same tension as last week, restaged with power. He executed a jury-priced HOH — three negotiation sessions, the agreed pawn framing, the 3 a.m. waver resisted — but the Game 2 ledger ran the other way: Haley entered the jury carrying a false booking against him he doesn't know exists, he told Melody outright he'd lose to all three icons, and he leaked the Toolshed alliance name to the person running the cleanest double-track in the house. Seat odds up, jury odds down; the 4 is where they cancel.

Lala — 3

Down one. The no-receipts era ended at the nomination ceremony and the funnel closed fast: named the comp threat by Dee, named the target by Drew ("for my own sanity"), sobbing in the bunks by afternoon before pulling herself into self-affirmations. The comp resume keeps a finalist profile alive if she runs the table from here, and the $1M knowledge is still the best single jury weapon on the board — but she now needs a Block Buster win just to keep holding it.

Melody — 4

Up one. She lost the HOH on a tiebreaker, then spent the window running the season's best two-track game — pillow-script reassurance upstairs, "sellout" and "your game is embarrassing"¹ everywhere else — while sitting at the center of the anti-Devens convergence without a fingerprint on it. Drew's attachment shields her from the block, Zingbot told the house the truth and nobody acted on it, and if Devens leaves Thursday her side takes the majority with her deception still unexposed. The motivation inflection is real; the number rises with it.

Taylor — 3

Holds. Fifth nomination, same profile: low agency, high survival, sharp reads delivered from the block. Her week's assets are other people's — Barrett's promise in her pocket, a bloc forming around her interests, a Devens eviction that flips the house math her way without her lifting anything — and "America sees it" is a viewer's consolation, not a juror's argument. Treading water in Game 1 still isn't win equity.

Yash — 5

Up one, the agency spike of the season. In seventy-two hours he eliminated a player by personal choice, took a nomination for it, won the veto without dropping a ball, forced the renom that put the vets' co-governor on the trapdoor, and is talking about "finishing the mission." The debits are specific: Haley sits in the jury house as the one juror whose exit he personally authored — the most heavily priced act a jury ever witnesses — and Drew is incubating him as next week's weapon inside a frame Yash can't see. Rising, but the bill for the tournament choice hasn't come due.

Biggest mover: Devens, 6 → 4 — the week's most respected player volunteered onto a block defended by a vote count that exists mostly in other people's contradicted sentences.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.